The election victory by Donald Trump has left many wondering about the future direction of U.S. foreign policy. Supporters of Israel are immediately focusing attention on Trump’s approach to the much-discussed Iran nuclear deal, which was approved by the Obama administration and five other Western governments in July 2015.
As a presidential candidate, Trump made a variety of comments regarding his opposition to the Iran nuclear deal, ranging from calls for stronger inspections, to entirely nixing the Obama administration’s signing of the pact. “You’d have to have onsite inspections anytime, anywhere, to start off with, which we don’t have at all. The whole deal is a terrible deal. There’s no way the Iranians are going to adhere to any deal we make,” Trump stated back in June of 2015.
Trump went further in his opposition to the deal during a speech at last March’s American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference, saying he would “dismantle” the nuclear deal. “My number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran. I have been in business a long time. This deal is catastrophic for Israel, for America, for the whole of the Middle East. We have rewarded the world’s leading state sponsor of terror with $150 billion in sanctions relief and we received absolutely nothing in return.”
Shortly after Trump’s victory, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani made it clear that Trump would not be able to unilaterally destroy the deal. “Iran’s understanding in the nuclear deal was that the accord was not concluded with one country or government, but was approved by a resolution of the U.N. Security Council and there is no possibility that it can be changed by a single government,” Rouhani told his cabinet.
While Trump has not commented on the deal following the election, one of his top foreign political advisers, Walid Phares, offered some insight into how the president-elect might handle the nuclear agreement, saying it will likely be renegotiated by Trump rather than ripped up. “Ripping up is maybe too strong of a word. He will take the agreement, review it, send it to Congress, demand from the Iranian’s to restore a few issues or change a few issues, and there will be a discussion.”
Ben Taleblu, a senior Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), believes that Trump will likely resolve to keep the accord intact and instead prioritize cracking down on Iran’s other troubling behavior in the Middle East, such as the Islamic Republic’s sponsorship of terrorism, something for which the Obama administration has often been criticized for not addressing. “I would say Trump will keep the accord, but feel less restricted about using coercive financial measures to target the rest of Iran’s bad behavior.”
Regardless of what President-elect Trump will choose to do with the nuclear deal, Iran will also pose a threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East through its direct involvement in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and elsewhere, as well as through its threats to Israel, America’s closest ally in the region.
“Given the broad range of issues that separate the U.S. and Iran, I think it is fair to say that Tehran will continue to pose a national security challenge to the next American administration,” Taleblu said. “Its too soon to speculate how a different U.S. policy in Syria or other theaters of the Middle East would affect relations with Tehran,” he added, “but Iranian hardliner’s have so far been trying to recast this entire election to their advantage.”
Originally posted at JNS.
