Weakened by war and diplomatic deadlock, Iran’s clerical elite stands at a crossroads: defy pressure to halt its nuclear activity and risk further Israeli and US attack, or concede and risk a leadership fracture.

For now, the Islamic Republic establishment is focusing on immediate survival over longer-term political strategy.

A fragile ceasefire ended a 12-day war in June that began with Israeli air strikes, followed by US bunker-busting bombings of three underground Iranian nuclear sites.

Both sides declared victory, but the war exposed the military vulnerabilities and punctured the image of deterrence maintained by a major Middle East power and Israel’s arch regional foe.

Three Iranian insiders told Reuters the political establishment now views negotiations with the US – aimed at resolving a decades-long dispute over its nuclear ambitions – as the only way to avoid further escalation and existential peril.

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